Big Debt Crises

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Ray Dalio
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Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)

具体描述

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

用户评价

评分

##历经两年多终于读完,是一本crisis的辞典,工具书。1)危机并不是由单一因素引发,而是有结构性的问题。所以“下一个危机不定是什么东西引发的”并不在理。及时诱因有一个,但是根本上还是结构性的。2)学习到了cycle的back-end logic,在介绍部分 3)管理者manage危机的好与坏很大程度决定危机的破坏性 4) 泡沫破裂往往始于rate raise 5)泡沫破裂不一定有准确原因,只要购买之力枯竭即会破裂 6) deleveraging初期容易低估downturn的持续性,造成小规模的rally 7)危机的政治后果可能比经济后果还大,大很多 8)depression里市场会时常随着政策动向而报复性反弹,因为大家会exaggerate相对较小的事情

评分

##先读为敬

评分

##Ray Dalio的现实主义贯穿始终,在解决债务危机面前,道德是次要的。

评分

##这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。

评分

##历经两年多终于读完,是一本crisis的辞典,工具书。1)危机并不是由单一因素引发,而是有结构性的问题。所以“下一个危机不定是什么东西引发的”并不在理。及时诱因有一个,但是根本上还是结构性的。2)学习到了cycle的back-end logic,在介绍部分 3)管理者manage危机的好与坏很大程度决定危机的破坏性 4) 泡沫破裂往往始于rate raise 5)泡沫破裂不一定有准确原因,只要购买之力枯竭即会破裂 6) deleveraging初期容易低估downturn的持续性,造成小规模的rally 7)危机的政治后果可能比经济后果还大,大很多 8)depression里市场会时常随着政策动向而报复性反弹,因为大家会exaggerate相对较小的事情

评分

##这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。

评分

##干货满满。deflationary/inflationary debt crises的两个框架搭得很好,三个具体例子(德国1918,美国1928,美国2007)是对框架详尽的运用,分析详细,包括从宏观、政策制定者、和普罗大众的各个角度进行,比较全面。扫过后面48个例子概况。

评分

##part1不错,part2的三个case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估计个个都能写很长,总结的比较水。

评分

##干货满满。deflationary/inflationary debt crises的两个框架搭得很好,三个具体例子(德国1918,美国1928,美国2007)是对框架详尽的运用,分析详细,包括从宏观、政策制定者、和普罗大众的各个角度进行,比较全面。扫过后面48个例子概况。

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