Big Debt Crises

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Ray Dalio
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Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)

具体描述

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

用户评价

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##魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史,竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面,dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了,在危机时放水时必须的,货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议,比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家,比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训,这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下,这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下,无法回复。但他整理的历史也侧面说明了,在真实世界里,做“正确的放水决定”是很困难的,政策执行人常常会反复,所以一旦进入危机周期,每一次不彻底的政策带来的部分反弹,都难掩整体的下行趋势。

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##囫囵吞枣的第一遍

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##结合现实看,更为有趣。

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##后面的广告有点出戏……

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##干货满满。deflationary/inflationary debt crises的两个框架搭得很好,三个具体例子(德国1918,美国1928,美国2007)是对框架详尽的运用,分析详细,包括从宏观、政策制定者、和普罗大众的各个角度进行,比较全面。扫过后面48个例子概况。

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##后面的广告有点出戏……

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##华尔街党支部书记还是很有料的 我有一说一????????????

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##神作。洞见。

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##Ray Dalio的现实主义贯穿始终,在解决债务危机面前,道德是次要的。

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