Big Debt Crises

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Ray Dalio
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Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)

具体描述

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

用户评价

评分

##历经两年多终于读完,是一本crisis的辞典,工具书。1)危机并不是由单一因素引发,而是有结构性的问题。所以“下一个危机不定是什么东西引发的”并不在理。及时诱因有一个,但是根本上还是结构性的。2)学习到了cycle的back-end logic,在介绍部分 3)管理者manage危机的好与坏很大程度决定危机的破坏性 4) 泡沫破裂往往始于rate raise 5)泡沫破裂不一定有准确原因,只要购买之力枯竭即会破裂 6) deleveraging初期容易低估downturn的持续性,造成小规模的rally 7)危机的政治后果可能比经济后果还大,大很多 8)depression里市场会时常随着政策动向而报复性反弹,因为大家会exaggerate相对较小的事情

评分

##华尔街党支部书记还是很有料的 我有一说一????????????

评分

##结合现实看,更为有趣。

评分

##这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。

评分

##没时间的话主要读第一部分和2007-2008的案例就好了,可是人类什么时候会从中吸取教训呢?

评分

##结合现实看,更为有趣。

评分

##历经两年多终于读完,是一本crisis的辞典,工具书。1)危机并不是由单一因素引发,而是有结构性的问题。所以“下一个危机不定是什么东西引发的”并不在理。及时诱因有一个,但是根本上还是结构性的。2)学习到了cycle的back-end logic,在介绍部分 3)管理者manage危机的好与坏很大程度决定危机的破坏性 4) 泡沫破裂往往始于rate raise 5)泡沫破裂不一定有准确原因,只要购买之力枯竭即会破裂 6) deleveraging初期容易低估downturn的持续性,造成小规模的rally 7)危机的政治后果可能比经济后果还大,大很多 8)depression里市场会时常随着政策动向而报复性反弹,因为大家会exaggerate相对较小的事情

评分

##魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史,竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面,dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了,在危机时放水时必须的,货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议,比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家,比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训,这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下,这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下,无法回复。但他整理的历史也侧面说明了,在真实世界里,做“正确的放水决定”是很困难的,政策执行人常常会反复,所以一旦进入危机周期,每一次不彻底的政策带来的部分反弹,都难掩整体的下行趋势。

评分

##没时间的话主要读第一部分和2007-2008的案例就好了,可是人类什么时候会从中吸取教训呢?

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