"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
##应该是我第一本完整看完的英文版经济学书。之前没有经济学基础,经济学方面的词汇量也不够,还是挺吃力的,很多术语只能查 wiki 或 investopedia,前前后后花了有半年时间,总得来说觉得值。最重要的是 Dalio 提供了三次金融危机的非常详细的描述,还有精确到天的报纸的摘要,简直可以每天看一部分然后像真实体验过一样。之后看类似危机分析的书可以拿来做对照。
评分##只有第一章细细看过,后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感:总的来说,大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的,而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一千年,那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想)。在这个基础上,所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下,个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期,而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。
评分##后面的广告有点出戏……
评分##这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。
评分##没时间的话主要读第一部分和2007-2008的案例就好了,可是人类什么时候会从中吸取教训呢?
评分##终于读完了。精华在于第一部分最后一节和第二部分的三个案例。其实应该反思的是战争和债务危机的关系。
评分##囫囵吞枣的第一遍
评分##Ray Dalio的现实主义贯穿始终,在解决债务危机面前,道德是次要的。
评分##这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。
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