"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
##神作。洞见。
评分##一本三册。看完了第一册 讲的债务危机的基本类型和原理 能把复杂的事情讲的如此简单 绝对是功力体现 Ray Dalio的新书最近也很火 其实个人感觉不过是这本书的延续 他一直致力于找出现象后面的规律 而经济现象后面的规律本质其实是人性。只要人类这种动物的特性不变这些现象应该会以不同的面貌持续出现下去 延绵不绝。每个普通人其实都应该看看本书 能掌握一点对宏观基本的分析原理。后面两册是具体的各个国家债务危机的case study 明天继续啃
评分##part1不错,part2的三个case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估计个个都能写很长,总结的比较水。
评分##只有第一章细细看过,后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感:总的来说,大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的,而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一千年,那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想)。在这个基础上,所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下,个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期,而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。
评分##Ray Dalio的现实主义贯穿始终,在解决债务危机面前,道德是次要的。
评分##part1不错,part2的三个case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估计个个都能写很长,总结的比较水。
评分##Type of books only Dalio can write
评分##Simply the best hypothesis, and proven.
评分##结合现实看,更为有趣。
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